The market read the political news in two directions today. A Democratic sweep of Congress, a worry until yesterday, became relief once President Trump said he would accept the result. The view that pressure to end the Iran war will grow then knocked oil down 8%, and the Dow jumped more than 3%. The same event hit AI infrastructure in the opposite way. Data-center regulation fears sent Micron down 7%, CoreWeave down about 10% and Vistra down nearly 14%, while AMD gained only 1% despite strong results. Microsoft, Amazon and Apple, the companies paying for AI, surged. The question of who pays for AI got an answer in share prices. Still, oil fell on hope rather than a deal, and an ISM prices reading of 73.0 says inflation is not over. Friday's jobs report deserves more attention than today's cheering.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
For Korean investors, sector mix mattered more than the index today. The Dow gained over 3%, but QQQ, the popular Nasdaq-100 ETF, rose 0.97% in dollars and about 0.67% in won for unhedged holders after a 0.30% drop in USD/KRW. TQQQ, the 3x leveraged version, rose 2.79%. Yahoo showed USD/KRW down 4.00 won at 1,340.81; the Seoul daytime close on November 4 was 1,341.5. Memory is the main concern: Micron fell 7.00%, and one analyst said delayed data-center builds could cool memory prices, a possible burden for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The KOSPI swung on data-center worries before ending slightly higher near 5,680. Lower oil helps Korea, a major crude importer.
📊 Market Overview
On Wednesday, November 4, the day after the US midterm elections, Wall Street surged. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,569.40 points (+3.03%) to 53,356.12, its best day since April 9, 2025. The S&P 500 rose 119.70 points (+1.58%) to 7,688.62, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 364.50 points (+1.44%) to 25,736.51. Democrats took both chambers and President Trump said he would accept the result, which lifted political uncertainty. Gains widened as oil fell nearly 8% during the session.
The day began differently. Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4% overnight as votes were counted. Direction changed before the open, and consumer, financial and health care stocks led the market higher. The VIX fear gauge dropped more than 19% to 16.84, back below 20.
Moves beneath the indexes were extreme. Eight of eleven sectors rose, seven of them by more than 2%. Technology (XLK, -0.01%) stayed flat despite surges in Microsoft (+6.68%) and Apple (+5.31%), while Industrials (XLI, -1.09%) and Energy (XLE, -4.74%) fell. Data-center regulation fears weighed heavily on AI infrastructure names.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Democrats take both chambers — the market reads relief ABC's count gave Democrats 54 Senate seats, a gain of seven, with Alaska and Mississippi still undecided. CNBC expects at least 250 House seats. Democrat Gina Hinojosa was also reported as the winner of the Texas governor's race. President Trump said he would accept the results and work with Democrats. Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said gridlock has historically been good for markets, and Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid called the outcome historically normal. UBS's Mark Haefele warned of near-term volatility, especially in tech. Trump Media (DJT) plunged 24.54%.
2. Oil falls 8% on hopes of pressure to end the Iran war Brent was reported to have settled at $94.62 and WTI at $88.12, down about 9% and 8%, with Brent at a two-month low. After Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for Republican losses, Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG said pressure to end the war would grow. As Nationwide's Mark Hackett noted, however, diplomatic signals remain ambiguous, and no deal has been confirmed. Lower oil eased rate worries and took the 10-year yield to 4.89%. ExxonMobil (-4.62%), ConocoPhillips (-5.17%) and Chevron (-3.69%) all fell.
3. AI infrastructure sinks on data-center regulation fears Ballot measures on data-center development failed in several states, and Texas Democrats' call for a data-center pause drew attention. Micron (-7.00%), CoreWeave (-9.90%), Nvidia (-3.17%), Broadcom (-2.00%) and Intel (-3.77%) fell. Power names dropped too: Vistra (-13.83%), NRG Energy (-13.52%) and Constellation (-6.71%). Dan Ives called it a major negative shift for the pace of the AI buildout. The big tech companies funding AI, by contrast, enjoyed a relief rally. Apple hit a record $354.33 intraday and closed at $349.51, and Amazon rose 6.12%. Evercore ISI's Amit Daryanani said delayed data-center builds could cool memory prices, which would help Apple.
4. AMD and Super Micro fail to hold gains despite strong results AMD reported third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.09 after Tuesday's close, above the $13.09 billion and $1.95 expected. Data-center revenue rose 97%, and Q4 revenue guidance of about $17 billion topped the $16.14 billion consensus. Shares that rose 5%–7% after hours gained only 1.01% in the regular session, closing at $488.78. Super Micro also lost its after-hours gains and fell 5.70%. Regulation news outweighed earnings.
5. Services cool while price pressure stays The October ISM services index came in at 54.5, below the 54.8 forecast and September's 54.9. New orders fell 3.9 points to 55.9, while employment rose to 51.4. The prices index eased 1 point to 73.0, still a high reading, and ISM said more pricing pressure may come. ADP private payrolls rose 86,000, above the 75,000 forecast. December hike odds range from 77% to 82% depending on source and time.
6. Single-stock gaps — 3M's settlement, McDonald's, health care 3M (+9.55%) agreed to settle about 99% of its firefighting-foam PFAS claims for $7.35 billion and authorized a $6 billion buyback. McDonald's (+6.53%) beat with adjusted EPS of $3.57, and US same-store sales of -0.2% were better than feared, though revenue of $7.16 billion missed. Uber (+4.91%) posted gross bookings up 20% to $59.8 billion. HCA Healthcare (+10.34%) and Dollar Tree (+9.64%) rose on hopes a Democratic Congress could reverse health care and food-aid cuts. Helen of Troy (+25.39%) surged after rejecting a $37-a-share proposal. FIS (-23.67%) cut its annual outlook, Datadog (-14.42%) sank despite 35% revenue growth, and CVS (-12.53%) fell sharply even after raising its EPS forecast. Defense stocks such as Lockheed Martin (-6.88%) weakened on fears of spending limits.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +4.26% | Amazon (+6.12%), Home Depot (+6.53%), McDonald's (+6.53%), lower oil; Tesla (-3.34%) partly offset |
| Financials (XLF) | +3.51% | JPMorgan (+4.18%), Bank of America (+3.97%), Morgan Stanley (+4.23%); FIS (-23.67%) plunged |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +3.47% | Comcast (+4.99%), Netflix (+4.68%), Disney (+4.18%), Alphabet (+3.18%) |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +3.36% | Dollar Tree (+9.64%), Walmart (+3.45%), P&G (+3.25%) |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +3.32% | Lower 10-year yield |
| Health Care (XLV) | +3.06% | HCA (+10.34%), Merck (+3.93%), Johnson & Johnson (+3.81%); CVS (-12.53%) plunged |
| Materials (XLB) | +2.49% | Weaker dollar, surging gold |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.44% | NextEra (+4.89%) strong; AI power names Vistra (-13.83%), NRG (-13.52%) plunged |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.01% | Microsoft (+6.68%) and Apple (+5.31%) offset the chip selloff |
| Industrials (XLI) | -1.09% | Caterpillar (-5.23%), Lockheed Martin (-6.88%) weak; 3M (+9.55%) partly offset |
| Energy (XLE) | -4.74% | Oil down 8%; ConocoPhillips (-5.17%), ExxonMobil (-4.62%) |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: Up 1.82% to 657.40, recovering Tuesday's decline.
- Dollar Index (DXY): Down 0.34% to 101.52, with divided government and lower oil cited as dollar negatives.
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Down 6 bp to 4.89%, moving away from 5% as the oil drop eased inflation worries.
- WTI Crude: Settled at $88.12, down about 8%. The yfinance quote of $88.54 (-7.86%) reflects post-settlement trading.
- Gold: Up 3.37% to $4,073.2, back above $4,000 as the dollar and yields both fell.
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX fell 3.81% to $135.92, its first decline in three sessions. The stock, a Texas-based company tied to Elon Musk, was seen as affected by the Democratic wins, and Tesla (-3.34%) also fell. No SpaceX-specific launch or contract news was confirmed for the day. The stock now sits just above its $135 IPO price, a level that may serve as a near-term sentiment marker.
⚠️ Investor Cautions
Both pillars of today's rally rest on unconfirmed expectations. Oil fell on the view that pressure to end the Iran war is growing, not on a deal, and diplomatic signals remain ambiguous. If talks falter, oil could reverse as quickly as it fell. Data-center regulation fears have not yet produced specific legislation, so AI stock declines may be overdone or may only be starting. Issues like this are not settled in a day the way earnings are.
Rates also offer little comfort. December hike odds remain near 80%, and an ISM services prices reading of 73.0 shows price pressure has not ended. Divided government is often fine for markets, but fiscal deadlines such as the debt limit could become a new risk. Reviewing position sizes makes more sense than chasing a 6% one-day surge in mega-cap tech.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- After-hours reaction to Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin: Qualcomm's EPS of $2.17 narrowly beat the $2.16 forecast, and it guided next-quarter revenue to $10.4–$11.2 billion, but it expects Apple revenue to fall about 50% sequentially. The after-hours direction is unclear, so watch the open. Arm fell 5.28% in the regular session ahead of its report.
- WTI at $90 and Iran follow-up news: Whether WTI stays below $90 is key. A move back above it would weaken one basis for the rally.
- S&P 500 at 7,700 and Dow at 53,000: The S&P 500 closed just under 7,700. Holding 53,000 on the Dow would signal that the rotation into cyclicals is continuing.
- Rebound in Micron and AI power names: Watch whether dip buyers appear near $795 for Micron and $48 for CoreWeave. This will test whether the regulation scare lasts more than a day.
- Rates ahead of Friday's jobs report: Nonfarm payrolls are expected at +65,000. A stronger number would firm December hike bets and could push the 10-year yield back toward 5%.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-11-05 (Thu): ConocoPhillips and Duke Energy (pre-market); Airbnb and Cloudflare (after the close) earnings
- 2026-11-06 (Fri): October jobs report (nonfarm payrolls expected +65,000)
- 2026-11-10 (Tue): October CPI
- 2026-12-09 (Wed): December FOMC rate decision (about 79% probability of a 25 bp hike, CME FedWatch)
📚 Sources
- Stock market news for Nov. 4, 2026 — CNBC
- Stock market today: Dow rallies 1,500 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gain after Democrats win control of Congress — Yahoo Finance
- U.S. stocks surge, and the Dow soars 1,500 points as oil prices tumble following the midterm elections — BNN Bloomberg
- Dow surges 1,500 points as Democrats take control of Congress — ABC News
- Dow Pops as Oil Falls in the Stock Market Today Live, November 4, 2026 — StockTitan
- What Democrats' midterm sweep means for your investments — CNBC
- Services PMI at 54.5%; October 2026 ISM Services PMI Report — PR Newswire
- AMD earnings beat the Street. Here's what analysts are saying — CNBC
- Why is 3M stock surging today? — Investing.com
- McDonald's Q3 2026 earnings beat estimates as U.S. traffic fell — Quartz
- Uber Announces Results for Third Quarter 2026 — Uber IR
- Live: Will Qualcomm Smash Q4 Earnings Tonight After the Market Closes? — 24/7 Wall St.
- Oil Prices Plunge as Democratic Sweep Rewrites Iran War Playbook — Archyde
- Won-dollar rate closes at 1,341.5 won — Seoul Finance
- KOSPI swings on AI data-center regulation worries, ends slightly higher near 5,680 — Hanyang Economy