If yesterday's question was who pays for AI, Apple offered part of the answer today. Despite record September-quarter revenue, it guided December-quarter gross margin down to 45%–46% and called memory pricing "unprecedented." As the AI infrastructure race absorbs memory supply, the bill is reaching the margins of companies that don't sell AI directly. That is why Micron rose while Apple fell on the same day. Today's chip rebound is welcome, but with the Nasdaq-100 still in correction and a rate hike heavily priced in, it is too early to call a trend change. The real tests are AMD's guidance and the midterm results. For now, it matters less how far stocks bounced than whose profit and whose cost AI spending has become.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
For Korean investors, currency had almost no effect today. USD/KRW edged down 1.05 won (about -0.08%) from the prior published level to 1,344.47, so an unhedged holder of QQQ, the popular Nasdaq-100 ETF, saw a +0.62% dollar gain become about +0.54% in won terms. TQQQ, the 3x leveraged version, rose 1.83%. The key point was Apple's memory comment. Its warning that memory prices will keep rising past December is a favorable sign for suppliers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and Micron gained 2.58%. Higher memory costs hurt device makers, however, so Korean electronics parts stocks should be judged by their customers.
📊 Market Overview
On Tuesday, November 3 — US midterm election day — Wall Street's major indexes split again. The S&P 500 rose 27.52 points (+0.36%) to 7,568.92, snapping a three-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.70 points (+0.83%) to 25,372.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 197.26 points (-0.38%) to 51,786.72. Dip buyers returned to chip stocks after the semiconductor index entered a bear market on Monday, lifting the Nasdaq, while the price-weighted Dow felt the full effect of Apple's decline.
The direction reversed from Monday, but large flows again moved beneath the indexes. Only four of eleven sectors rose: Technology (XLK, +1.31%), Communication Services (XLC, +1.20%), Industrials (XLI, +0.97%) and Real Estate (XLRE, +0.07%). Consumer Staples (XLP, -2.06%) and Materials (XLB, -2.05%) each lost more than 2%. Some of the money that left tech for cyclicals and defensives on Monday appeared to flow back. The VIX eased about 2% to 20.73 but stayed above 20, showing investors remained on guard ahead of the election and AMD's report.
Despite the gain, the Nasdaq-100 remained in correction, about 10% below its high. AMD and Super Micro Computer were due to report after the close; when this report was written, their results and the midterm outcome had not yet been confirmed.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Apple falls on its margin outlook despite a record September quarter Apple reported fiscal Q4 results after Monday's close, the first under CEO John Ternus. Revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion, above the roughly $113.4 billion expected, and EPS of $2.10 beat the $1.99 forecast. iPhone revenue climbed 17% to $57.6 billion, and Greater China revenue grew 21%. Investors focused instead on December-quarter gross margin guidance of 45%–46%, well below Q4's 47.9%, a figure that itself included about one point from tariff refunds. Ternus called memory pricing "unprecedented" and said costs will keep rising past December. The stock fell 1.90% to close at $331.90.
2. Chips rebound — AMD up 3.65% ahead of earnings AI and chip stocks recovered after Monday's rout. AMD rose 3.65% to $483.90, Broadcom gained 3.07%, Arm 2.90%, Micron 2.58% and Nvidia 2.29%. Oracle rebounded 5.86% a day after an 8.85% drop on its $20 billion financing plan, and CoreWeave rose 7.16%. No specific catalyst for Oracle's rebound was confirmed, so it reads as dip buying after an oversized drop. Cost-of-capital worries have not gone away, however; Shawn Snyder of Potomac Fund Management expects them to persist for quite some time.
3. Midterms — prediction markets near 75% for a Democratic Senate Prediction markets put the chance of Democrats taking the Senate at nearly 75%. Some investors said a Democratic sweep of both chambers was not fully priced in and could weigh on stocks Wednesday. BMO's Ian Lyngen warned that the better Democrats perform, the more nervous the market may become about AI regulation. Snyder, by contrast, expects a relief rally once the uncertainty clears, regardless of the outcome.
4. Oil ends lower despite a reported US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island Oil rose early after reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island early Tuesday, then gave back those gains as hopes for progress in talks returned. Brent settled at $103.60 a barrel and WTI at $96.09, a second straight decline. A Reuters report citing an Iranian official said the two sides remain far from a deal, so volatility persists.
5. Job openings at 7.52 million beat forecasts, firming December hike bets September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523 million, above both the 7.10 million forecast and August's revised 7.19 million. The quits rate rose to 2.1%. September factory orders rose 1.8%, also above forecasts, helped by a 28.3% jump in commercial aircraft orders. The firm data pushed the 10-year yield to 4.95%, and CME FedWatch, as cited by FXStreet, showed the odds of a December hike at 79%, up from 74% a day earlier. Readings vary between 73% and 79% depending on source and time.
6. Earnings season drives extreme stock-by-stock divergence Earnings produced large single-stock moves. Aehr Test Systems (+26.50%) surged on record revenue and a raised annual forecast, and Xometry (+16.55%) jumped on 40% revenue growth. Bloom Energy (+9.05%) gained on a Barclays upgrade. Stevanato Group (-28.62%) sank on lower GLP-1-related revenue expectations, and Sysco (-9.31%) fell on soft restaurant traffic and higher fuel costs. Shopify (-8.74%) posted revenue of $3.74 billion, just below estimates, while Gartner (-13.29%) and Dynatrace (-14.58%) also dropped sharply. Palantir slipped 1.65% despite a strong quarter amid concerns over slower total contract value growth.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +1.31% | Chip rebound; Oracle (+5.86%), Microsoft (+2.74%), AMD (+3.65%); Apple (-1.90%) limited gains |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +1.20% | Meta (+2.36%), Alphabet (+0.37%) |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.97% | Caterpillar (+1.67%), GE (+1.54%) |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.07% | Flat as yields rose |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.30% | Merck (-2.48%), Johnson & Johnson (-1.62%) weak; Thermo Fisher (+2.30%) partly offset |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.55% | Higher 10-year yield; Duke Energy (-1.46%) |
| Financials (XLF) | -0.64% | Gave back part of Monday's gain; JPMorgan (-0.76%) |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.69% | Home Depot (-2.21%), Tesla (-1.32%) weak; Amazon (+2.06%) partly offset |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.80% | Oil down a second day; ExxonMobil (-1.23%) |
| Materials (XLB) | -2.05% | Gave back Monday's gain |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -2.06% | Sysco (-9.31%) plunged; profit-taking in defensives such as Walmart (-2.22%) |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: Down 0.58% to 645.66, with European chip stocks weak as ASML fell 3.4%.
- Dollar Index (DXY): Up 0.11% to 101.87, supported by stronger-than-expected job openings.
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Up 6 bp to 4.95%, moving back toward 5%.
- WTI Crude: Settled at $96.09, a second straight decline. The yfinance quote of $96.73 (+0.28%) reflects post-settlement trading.
- Gold: Down 0.98% to $3,930.5, pressured by a firmer dollar, higher yields and December hike bets.
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX rose 3.62% to $141.31, its second straight gain after Monday's +1.22%. No SpaceX-specific launch or contract news was confirmed for the day, and the stock appears to have moved with the return of risk appetite across AI and tech. It trades above its $135 IPO price, but given its post-IPO volatility, a single day's move says little about direction.
⚠️ Investor Cautions
Today's bounce does not confirm a trend change. The Nasdaq-100 is still in correction, and Snyder said the AI trade could fall another 4%–5% even if it is near oversold territory. CoreWeave rose more than 7% but is down about 41% over the past month with heavy short interest, so the swings themselves are a warning sign. As Bill Ackman's remark that markets feel "broken" suggests, leveraged trading is amplifying single-stock moves, so chasing short-term gains during earnings season calls for particular care.
Rates are also a burden. Strong job openings reinforced December hike expectations, and the 10-year yield is close to 5%. Oil can change direction within a day on Iran headlines, so relying on negotiation hopes is risky. Apple also made clear that rising memory prices help chipmakers but hurt device makers' margins. Within the same AI theme, some companies benefit while others bear the cost.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- AMD results and Q4 guidance: Consensus is Q3 EPS of $1.95 on $13.09 billion in revenue, with Q4 revenue expectations near $16.3 billion. Jefferies projects $17 billion. Options imply a move of roughly 7%–11%. Whether data-center revenue tops $8 billion and how Helios shipments are guided will likely decide if the chip rebound lasts.
- Midterm results and Wednesday's reaction: A Democratic sweep could weigh on tech and defense stocks through AI regulation concerns. An outcome within expectations keeps a relief-rally scenario alive.
- S&P 500 at 7,500 and Nasdaq at 25,000: The S&P 500 sits about 0.9% above 7,500 and the Nasdaq about 1.5% above 25,000. Holding these levels is the benchmark for near-term sentiment.
- ISM services and ADP private payrolls (Wednesday): September's ISM services index was 54.9. A strong reading could lift hike expectations and push the 10-year yield above 5%.
- Qualcomm, Arm, McDonald's and Uber earnings (Wednesday): Qualcomm and Arm report after the close. Qualcomm's comments on how memory costs affect smartphone demand and margins will be the next check on Apple's guidance.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-11-03 (Tue) after the close: AMD and Super Micro earnings; midterm vote count
- 2026-11-04 (Wed): ISM services and ADP; McDonald's and Uber (pre-market), Qualcomm and Arm (after the close) earnings
- 2026-11-06 (Fri): October jobs report (nonfarm payrolls expected +65,000)
- 2026-11-10 (Tue): October CPI
- 2026-12-09 (Wed): December FOMC rate decision (79% probability of a 25 bp hike, CME FedWatch)
📚 Sources
- Stock market news for Nov. 3, 2026 — CNBC
- Stock market today: Dow slips, S&P and Nasdaq gain as chip stocks rally, focus shifts to midterm elections — Yahoo Finance
- Stock Market Today Live, November 3, 2026: Chip Stocks Lift the Nasdaq as Apple Weighs on the Dow — StockTitan
- Apple's Q4 2026 Earnings Call Takeaways — MacRumors
- Apple's Hardware Strength Fuels Analyst Optimism, Multiple Analysts Raise Price Targets — 24/7 Wall St.
- Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Plunge 323 Points, Apple Sinks, and Iran Strikes Send Oil Soaring — 24/7 Wall St.
- US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep) 7.523M vs. Exp. 7.10M — Newsquawk
- Gold falls near $3,900 amid rising US yields and Fed hawkish bets — FXStreet
- Won-dollar rate falls 2.8 won to 1,341.0 at 3:30 p.m. — Asia Economy