The regular session was quiet on the Fed's expected hold, but the real verdict came after the bell. Microsoft was rewarded for 48% Azure growth and lower-than-expected capex, while Alphabet fell more than 8% despite more than doubling cloud revenue, because free cash flow turned negative. It signals a new phase in which the market separates AI spenders that fund investment from cash flow from those burning cash to do it. Oracle's jump, too, owed more to financial discipline — capping new funding at $20 billion — than to its growth target. Layer on a 5.05% 10-year yield and an 80%-plus chance of a December hike, and the macro burden is real. For now, I think selectivity beats buying the whole AI theme: favor companies whose cash flow can carry their capex. Thursday's PCE may raise that bar again.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
For Korean investors, the day's star was SK hynix. Its record results and roughly $75 billion shareholder-return plan sent Samsung Electronics up about 9% in Seoul, and Micron jumped 5.86% in New York, strengthening the 'memory supercycle' narrative. Meanwhile, the won weakened: USD/KRW closed up 14.0 won at 1,337.7 in Seoul (1,342.64 on Yahoo), as dollar demand for overseas stock purchases outweighed chip exporters' dollar sales. Unhedged holders of QQQ (the Nasdaq-100 ETF, +0.60%) saw won-denominated returns swell to nearly 2%, but Nasdaq-100 products will be hard-pressed to avoid losses if Alphabet's after-hours slide carries into Thursday. A weaker won partly cushions such dollar-denominated losses.
📊 Market Overview
On Wednesday, October 28, all three major U.S. indexes edged higher as the Federal Reserve held rates steady. The S&P 500 rose 21.38 points (+0.28%) to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq Composite gained 72.04 points (+0.27%) to 26,549.85, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 97.53 points (+0.19%) to 52,475.10. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted a third straight gain, and the Nasdaq closed above the 26,500 level flagged as a key test the day before. The S&P 500, however, failed to clear 7,750, so upside momentum remained modest.
Two forces shaped the session. In the morning, SK hynix's record quarterly results ignited memory chip stocks, and Oracle jumped more than 10% after unveiling its fiscal 2030 revenue target. After the 2 p.m. FOMC statement, indexes briefly dipped, rebounded during Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, then gave back part of the gains late. In the end, the market read it as "an expected hold with a hawkish tone" and did not change direction much.
After the bell came the week's biggest event: Microsoft and Alphabet earnings. Microsoft rose after hours on 48% Azure growth, while Alphabet fell around 8% after hours despite more than doubling its cloud revenue, weighed down by weaker search sales and heavy capital spending. ServiceNow (down around 15%) and Fortinet (down around 25%) also slumped after hours, so Thursday's session is likely to open in a very different mood from Wednesday's regular session.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Fed holds at 3.75–4.00%; two officials dissent in favor of a hike The FOMC kept its policy rate at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook voting for a 25 bp hike. The statement described the economy as "expanding at a strong pace" with inflation still elevated, which markets read as hawkish. At his press conference, Chair Warsh offered no signal on the path ahead, saying he does not believe in forward guidance "absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis," and stressed that politics played no role in a decision coming just before the November 3 midterm elections. CME FedWatch put the probability of a 25 bp hike in December at 82.6%, up from 78.3% a day earlier.
2. Oracle +10.73% on a $225 billion fiscal 2030 revenue target At its investor day during Oracle AI World in Las Vegas, Oracle set a fiscal 2030 target of more than $225 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of $21 or more, implying average annual growth above 35%. The market focused even more on the financing plan: Oracle will cap new capital raising at $20 billion through fiscal 2030 and expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028. With shares down about a third this year on worries over debt-funded AI spending, reduced financing uncertainty drove the jump. The expanded OpenAI partnership announced a day earlier (access to Oracle business apps from within ChatGPT) added support. The stock closed at $144.54.
3. SK hynix sparks a memory rally; Micron +5.86% SK hynix reported record quarterly operating profit of about 83.3 trillion won (up 632% year over year) and a shareholder-return program worth roughly $75 billion, lifting memory stocks broadly. Micron rose 5.86% to $983.23, closing in on $1,000, while Arm (+4.10%), AMD (+3.24%), Broadcom (+2.77%) and Intel (+1.91%) also advanced. AMD was additionally helped by Susquehanna raising its price target to $650. Nvidia, by contrast, slipped 1.17%, sitting out the chip rally. In Seoul, Samsung Electronics surged about 9% the same day.
4. Big Tech after the bell: Microsoft wins, Alphabet stumbles Microsoft's fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $92.28 billion (+19%) and adjusted EPS of $4.89 topped consensus ($90.69 billion, $4.73). Azure grew 48%, above the company's own 44–45% outlook, and capital expenditures of $45.2 billion came in below expectations (about $50.7 billion). Shares rose 2–4% after hours. Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue jumped 103% to $30.7 billion, beating estimates, but search revenue of $63.35 billion missed expectations ($64.85 billion) and EPS of $2.12 fell well short of consensus (about $3). Quarterly capex of $51.4 billion pushed free cash flow to negative $9.1 billion, and the stock fell around 8% after hours, after gaining 1.34% in the regular session.
5. Software earnings shock and Vertiv's surge Data-center power and cooling supplier Vertiv soared 16.6% on 61% Q3 sales growth and a raised full-year outlook. Enphase plunged 16.0% after weak Q4 guidance, citing soft residential solar demand and high rates. After the close, ServiceNow fell around 15% in extended trading despite 21% subscription revenue growth, as it guided to slower current remaining performance obligations growth, and Fortinet dropped around 25% after cutting its service revenue outlook. ServiceNow had already fallen 3.00% in the regular session, making the top-losers list.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Technology (XLK) | +0.80% | Memory rally on SK hynix results, Oracle surge |
| Financials (XLF) | +0.45% | Morgan Stanley (+1.72%), AmEx (+1.61%), Goldman Sachs (+1.47%) |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.35% | WTI up 2%, Exxon Mobil +1.17% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.34% | Vertiv surge, GE +1.17% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.30% | Thermo Fisher +1.61%, Johnson & Johnson +0.86% |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.15% | Roughly flat |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.10% | Tesla -0.80%, Home Depot -0.30% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.36% | P&G -0.61%, Walmart -0.46% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.42% | Meta -1.24%, Verizon -1.71% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.73% | Rate-sensitive names weak as 10-year tops 5% again |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.84% | NextEra -1.70%, Southern -1.22% |
Six of 11 sectors rose. Growth and cyclical sectors led while rate-sensitive utilities and real estate were the weakest, showing that rising long-term yields drove sector divergence.
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: Up 0.07% to 644.14, essentially flat as investors awaited Thursday's ECB decision.
- Dollar Index (DXY): Down 0.19% to 102.12; the dollar lacked direction as Chair Warsh gave no signal on the policy path.
- 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Up 0.05 percentage point to 5.05%, back above 5%, reflecting the hawkish statement and December hike expectations.
- WTI Crude: Up 2.04% to $101.94, firmly back above $100.
- Gold: Up 0.16% to $4,081.20 per ounce, holding above $4,000.
- ETFs popular with Korean investors: QQQ rose 0.60% to $725.61, SPY gained 0.34% to $772.31, and TQQQ added 1.86% to $72.36.
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX fell 2.25% to $145.23, after dipping as low as $142.13 intraday. The decline was linked to a lawsuit challenging the tax-incentive framework for its planned $100 billion Louisiana spaceport, while its Q4 capex guidance ($35–40 billion) resurfaced as a concern. Relative to its 52-week range (about $104.83–225.64), the stock remains below the midpoint.
SPCX posted the second-largest decline among core names after ServiceNow, underscoring that it carries both of the risks the market worried about on the day: rising rates and heavy capital spending. Progress in the Louisiana lawsuit and upcoming launch schedules are the near-term swing factors.
⚠️ Investor Cautions
By regular-session closes it was a quiet day, but the real risk piled up after the bell. The sharp after-hours drops in Alphabet (around -8%), ServiceNow (around -15%) and Fortinet (around -25%) reaffirm this earnings season's pattern: even good numbers get sold hard when capex or slowing growth signals appear. Given that Alphabet, which rose in the regular session, fell more than 8% after hours, index futures and Nasdaq-100 trackers could see heightened volatility at Thursday's open.
The macro backdrop is also tough. A 5.05% 10-year yield, WTI above $100 and an 80%-plus chance of a December hike weigh on richly valued growth stocks. The stronger the memory and AI infrastructure rally, the weaker software and rate-sensitive names become on the other side, so portfolios concentrated in a single theme should review their weightings. Triple-leveraged products such as TQQQ could see daily losses magnified if after-hours moves carry into the regular session.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
The next session is Thursday, October 29, with growth and inflation data and Amazon earnings following the Fed decision.
- Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE (8:30 a.m.): Consensus for GDP is around 3.2% annualized, versus 2.2% in Q2. Core PCE is expected at 0.3% month over month (prior 0.2%). A core PCE reading of 0.4% or higher would effectively lock in a December hike and could push the 10-year toward 5.1%; a 0.2% print would ease some rate pressure.
- Alphabet's after-hours drop in the regular session: If the roughly 8% decline from the $324.89 close carries over, the $300 level becomes the key support. As a heavyweight in the Nasdaq-100, it could drag the whole index.
- Nasdaq 26,500: The index closed just above at 26,549.85. If the Alphabet and ServiceNow selloffs carry over, it will likely slip back below, with next support near 26,170. For the S&P 500, 7,700 and 7,676 are support zones.
- Amazon earnings (after the close): Consensus is EPS of $1.96 and revenue of $202.21 billion. AWS growth will be compared with Microsoft Azure's 48%, and the key question is whether capex pressures cash flow as it did at Alphabet.
- ECB policy decision: Europe's rate path could influence the dollar and Treasury yields.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-10-29 (Thu): Q3 GDP advance estimate and September PCE, ECB policy decision, earnings from Amazon, Eli Lilly, Intel and Caterpillar
- 2026-11-03 (Tue): U.S. midterm elections, AMD Q3 earnings (after the close)
- 2026-12-08–09: Next FOMC meeting (decision on December 9)
📚 Sources
- Stock Market Today Live October 28, 2026: Fed Holds Rates, Vertiv Jumps, Enphase Falls — StockTitan
- Fed interest rate decision October 2026: Fed holds rates steady — CNBC
- Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, but two officials dissented in favor of a rate hike — CNN
- Wall Street shows little reaction amid small moves after Fed holds rates steady — Investing.com
- Oracle stock pops on forecast for 35% average growth through 2030 — CNBC
- Oracle Stock Surges as 2030 Revenue Target Exceeds $225 Billion — Benzinga
- Micron, AMD and Nvidia Stocks Rise as Memory Chip Boom Lifts AI Trade — GuruFocus
- Why Is AMD Stock Up Today, 10/28/26? — TipRanks
- Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 earnings report 2027 — CNBC
- Alphabet Stock Tumbles on Q3 Miss, Google Cloud Revenues Surge — Benzinga
- Alphabet Q3: Google Cloud revenue jumps 103% but search and ad sales miss forecasts — investingLive
- Why is Space Exploration Technologies stock sliding today? — Investing.com
- Preview: Due October 29 - U.S. Q3 GDP — Continuum Economics
- KRW/USD closes up 14.0 won at 1,337.7 — Newsis