Today's key question was why stocks still aren't falling. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.31%, near a 20-year high, the ISM services prices index rose from 72.6 to 74, and Brent crude remains above $100. Global bond markets, from France and Japan to the UK, Germany and Australia, have also been shaken by sharply higher yields this year. Yet the Nasdaq set a fresh record and Nvidia hit an all-time high. The market is not ignoring rates; it is betting that earnings and the AI investment cycle can offset the burden. The rally is narrow, though. Gains clustered in mega-caps, AI and space, while Intel, Qualcomm, Salesforce and Arm fell, and the Fear & Greed Index at 44 is still in Fear. In a tape where price runs ahead of sentiment, the riskiest moment is when the rate-path narrative shifts, with Wednesday's FOMC minutes and next week's CPI the likely triggers. The trend is up, but checking exposure ahead of events is more prudent than chasing.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
USD/KRW fell 19.06 won to 1,341.53 (a stronger won), trimming the won-denominated gains of unhedged Korean investors on US stocks, though it may offer a better entry for those averaging into dollar assets. Korean-favorite ETFs QQQ (+0.88%), SPY (+0.67%) and TQQQ (+2.6%) all rose. Micron (MU), a key read-through for Korea's memory makers, slipped 1.02% to $1,063.96, while TSMC (TSM) touched an all-time high after Elon Musk confirmed early talks on a Terafab collaboration, a point of interest for Korean foundry investors.
📊 Market Overview
US stocks closed higher across all three major indexes on October 5 (local time). The S&P 500 rose 51.23 points (+0.66%) to 7,773.95, the Nasdaq Composite gained 286.45 points (+1.05%) to 27,477.31, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 90.94 points (+0.18%) to 51,267.90. The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 both set fresh record closes, and Nvidia hit an all-time high near $237 intraday. With the market mood from Friday's jobs report, which pared bets on further Fed tightening, carrying over, mega-cap tech led the day.
Notably, equities held up despite stress in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 3bp to 5.31%, near a 20-year high, and government bond yields in France, Japan, the UK, Germany and Australia have also climbed 50-150bp year to date. Even so, investors leaned into risk, focusing on the approaching Q3 earnings season and the AI investment cycle. The Dow's gain of only 0.18% showed the advance was concentrated in tech and growth stocks.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Nasdaq and Nvidia Hit Records Despite 5.31% Yields With the 10-year yield near a 20-year high, the Nasdaq still rose 1.05% to a record 27,477.31. Nvidia gained 2.12% to $238.90, Meta 1.90%, Microsoft 1.48% and Broadcom 2.08%. The simultaneous rise in software leaders and AI chips suggests the market is betting that earnings can outrun rates. Sean McLaughlin, chief options strategist at All Star Charts, said the market has had every reason to sell off but hasn't, adding that the path of least resistance appears higher.
2. ISM Services PMI at 54.9, Prices Index Up to 74 September's ISM Services PMI came in at 54.9, slightly below both the prior reading (55.4) and the forecast (55.2). It stayed in expansion territory (above 50) but at a slower pace. The prices subindex, however, rose from 72.6 to 74, showing cost pressure in services remains elevated. The combination of slightly slower growth and sticky prices is an uncomfortable one for the Fed.
3. SpaceX (SPCX) +7.63% as Morgan Stanley Reiterates $300 Target SPCX jumped 7.63% to close at $171.09, the top gainer among tracked names. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target, calling the stock one of the cheaper ways to play the optionality of the Space and Intelligence Economy. Shares rose intraday to their highest level since July. Friday's momentum from the successful ISS crew transport and Google satellite launch carried through, with anticipation ahead of Starship Flight 15 adding to the bid.
4. TSMC Hits Record High on Musk's 'Terafab' Collaboration Remarks Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) set an all-time high after Elon Musk confirmed early-stage talks about a 'Terafab' collaboration. Optimism about the broader AI chip supply chain supported semiconductor sentiment. Within chips, however, Intel (-2.63%), Qualcomm (-2.21%) and Arm (-1.49%) fell, showing a wide gap between names.
5. Healthcare Divergence: Thermo Fisher +3.35%, Merck -3.30% Thermo Fisher rose 3.35% to $676.76 after JPMorgan named it an October top pick with an Overweight rating. Merck, by contrast, fell 3.30% to $139.54. Even though JPMorgan lifted its Merck target from $150 to $165 and kept Overweight the same day, the stock did not respond, likely on profit-taking ahead of Q3 results scheduled for October 29. Brazilian stocks were also volatile, with Nu Holdings (+13%) and MercadoLibre (+9%) surging after Flávio Bolsonaro took a lead in presidential polling.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Materials | +1.31% | Rotation into cyclicals despite rate pressure |
| Communication Services | +1.17% | Meta (+1.90%) and Alphabet (+0.86%) strength |
| Energy | +1.00% | Brent above $100, ConocoPhillips (+1.30%) higher |
| Financials | +0.73% | Wells Fargo (+1.23%) and BAC up, Goldman Sachs (-1.01%) weaker |
| Healthcare | +0.72% | Thermo Fisher and UnitedHealth (+1.80%) strong, Merck and J&J weak |
| Consumer Staples | +0.63% | Defensive buying in Coca-Cola (+1.00%) and P&G (+0.71%) |
| Technology | +0.56% | Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft near highs; Intel, Qualcomm, Salesforce down |
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.35% | Tesla (+2.20%) led, Amazon flat |
| Utilities | +0.35% | Defensive inflows despite higher yields |
| Industrials | +0.09% | Caterpillar (+0.32%) edged up, GE (-1.04%) fell |
| Real Estate | -0.34% | Only decliner on pressure from higher Treasury yields |
🌍 Global Markets
- European STOXX 600: 633.62 (+0.36%) — Edged higher alongside US tech strength
- Dollar Index (DXY): 102.12 (+0.19%) — Dollar slightly firmer on higher US yields
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.31% (+3bp) — Near a 20-year high, global bond weakness persists
- WTI Crude: $89.30 (-1.99%) — Fell on short-term profit-taking, though Brent remains above $100
- Gold: $4,167.60 (+0.13%) — Slightly higher in a flat range
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX closed at $171.09, up 7.63%. Following Friday's 7.35% gain, that is back-to-back 7% advances, a double-digit percentage gain in just two sessions. The direct trigger was Morgan Stanley's reiterated Overweight rating and $300 price target, which implies roughly 75% upside from the current price. The note said investors still have a few weeks to buy ahead of Starship Flight 15, fueling event-driven expectations. The stock rose to its highest level since July intraday. Friday's successful ISS crew transport and Google satellite launch also carried through. Still, after such a sharp run, volatility could rise on any delay or failure around Flight 15.
⚠️ Investor Caution
Investors should be wary that the record highs rest on narrow support. A 5.31% 10-year yield raises the discount-rate burden on equities, and the ISM prices index rising to 74 means the Fed will find it hard to signal easing. Gains are concentrated in mega-cap, AI and space themes, and dispersion within sectors is large, as shown by declines in Intel, Qualcomm, Salesforce and Arm. The CNN Fear & Greed Index at 44 remains in Fear, showing price running ahead of sentiment. With Brent above $100 and global bond weakness layered on top, an energy or rate shock could trigger a quick valuation reset in tech. Chasing a stock like SPCX after two straight surges also carries high volatility risk.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- Nasdaq Holding 27,500: The index closed at a record 27,477.31. Whether it pushes through and holds 27,500 is the first signal of trend continuation.
- S&P 500 Testing 7,800: At 7,773.95, the index is about 0.3% shy of 7,800. A slide below 7,750 would signal a short-term pullback.
- Whether the 10-Year Breaks Above 5.31%: Near a 20-year high, a move toward 5.35-5.40% could revive valuation pressure on tech, while a drop into the 5.2% area could spread relief.
- October 7 FOMC Minutes: They will reveal how members weighed inflation against labor-market softening at the September meeting. With the ISM prices index just rising, a strongly hawkish tone could rattle the market.
- Whether SPCX Holds $170: After two sharp gains, support near $170 would sustain momentum, while a break could invite heavier profit-taking.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-10-07: FOMC September minutes, Levi Strauss (LEVI) earnings (EPS estimate $0.36, revenue ~$1.62B)
- 2026-10-08: PepsiCo (PEP) Q3 earnings (EPS estimate $2.30, revenue ~$25.0B)
- 2026-10-09: Delta Air Lines (DAL) Q3 earnings, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary)
- 2026-10-14: US September CPI
- 2026-10-29: Merck (MRK) Q3 earnings (scheduled)
📚 Sources
- Stock Market Today (Oct. 5, 2026): S&P 500 moves higher, yields higher after payrolls data — Yahoo Finance
- Stock market today: Nasdaq, Nvidia post record highs as tech strength outshines bond weakness — Yahoo Finance
- SpaceX Stock Surges as Morgan Stanley Says Stock 'Cheap and Getting Cheaper' — Yahoo Finance
- Earnings week preview: staples, airlines, and insurance in focus for Oct 6–9 — Investing.com
- Top Three US Stocks to Watch This Week: PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Nvidia — Benzinga