Today's session can be summed up as "earnings beat rates." The 10-year Treasury yield touched a fresh two-decade-plus high of 5.30%, yet blowout results from Micron and Accenture pulled the indices back into positive territory. Still, it's too early to read this bounce as a trend reversal. The growing pattern of EPS beats being erased by a single soft guidance figure — as with Nike's 6%+ after-hours drop — suggests the market is now reacting more to the direction of guidance than to the headline surprise itself. The fact that J.P. Morgan and Citi hold diametrically opposed rate-path views is itself evidence of how uncertain the Fed's next move has become. Also worth watching is how Broadcom-Anthropic-style "circular financing" structures are spreading across the AI value chain. With earnings holding up but rates, valuation, and financing-structure risk all stacking up at once, I'd rather scrutinize each company's guidance quality than chase this short-term bounce for now.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
The Korean won weakened 7.96 won against the dollar today to close at 1,358.46, still well below the 1,550 level seen two months ago — but Korean retail investors ("seohak ants") holding unhedged U.S. stocks continue to face currency headwinds. Micron's surging HBM revenue is both a competitive pressure on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and a signal that the AI memory supercycle remains intact, which is relevant context for Korean semiconductor sentiment. Korean investors' holdings of U.S. stocks have recovered to $196.2 billion, within about 4% of May's record high of $204.2 billion, with steady inflows continuing into currency-exposed ETFs like KODEX US Nasdaq 100 and TIGER US S&P 500.
📊 Market Overview
On the first trading day of October, Wall Street wobbled on a spike in Treasury yields before staging a late rebound, with all three major indices closing modestly higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.19% (+14.91pt) to 7,666.45, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.04% (+10.54pt) to 26,871.60, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.04% (+20.51pt) to 50,926.56.
Risk assets wobbled earlier in the session as the 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.30%, a fresh two-decade-plus high, extending aftershocks from the bond market's "worst quarter in decades." But yields eased back to 5.24% in the afternoon, and earnings surprises from Micron and Accenture lifted tech stocks, allowing the indices to erase losses and turn positive. The "rates vs. earnings" tug-of-war that has defined this autumn's market played out in full on the very first day of October.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Micron's Earnings Surprise Reverberates Through the Semiconductor Chain Micron's (MU) fiscal Q4 results, released after Wednesday's close, were fully reflected in the stock a day later. Revenue of $54.23 billion (up 379% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $33.42 blew past consensus, with data center revenue surging 11-fold. Q1 guidance of $61.5 billion in revenue and $38.15 in EPS also topped Street estimates of $57 billion and $35.40. Shares initially dipped on capex concerns before rebounding +3.03% in today's regular session to close at $1,097.39. Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated his Overweight rating and $1,400 price target.
2. Broadcom to Lend Anthropic Up to $42 Billion for Chip Leasing Broadcom (AVGO) agreed to provide financing of up to $42 billion to support AI startup Anthropic's infrastructure buildout, structured as convertible debt that could later convert into equity. Anthropic has committed $125.2 billion to computing capacity over five years, and the deal positions it to become Broadcom's largest chip-design customer by 2027. Concerns were raised about Broadcom's dual role as supplier, lessor, and financier. Broadcom shares themselves fell 2.15% to $343.64, reflecting some concern over the scale of capital commitment.
3. Accenture Soars 15.78% on Blowout Earnings Consulting giant Accenture (ACN) reported fiscal Q4 GAAP EPS of $3.29 (beating consensus by 11 cents) and revenue of $18.7 billion (up 6.3%, roughly $660 million above estimates), sending shares sharply higher from the open. FY27 guidance was equally upbeat, with EPS of $14.39–14.81 (+6–9%) and revenue growth of 3–6%. The day's gain marked the company's largest single-day stock move on record.
4. Nike Posts Mixed Results and Guidance Shock After the Close Nike (NKE) was relatively quiet during the regular session, slipping 0.71% to close at $35.15, but the real drama came after hours. Fiscal Q1 EPS of $0.48 beat the $0.44 consensus, but revenue of $11.21 billion missed the $11.35 billion estimate, down 5% year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis. Greater China revenue plunged 22% to $1.18 billion, missing the $1.3 billion estimate and reviving China-related concerns. The bigger shock was guidance: management projected FY27 adjusted EPS of $1.15–1.35, well below the $1.65 analysts had expected. Shares tumbled 6.3% after hours to roughly $33.00. J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America had each effectively issued sell-equivalent ratings ahead of the report, and Nike shares are down 43% year-to-date, having already been removed from the S&P 100.
5. China Halts Fuel Exports Ahead of Golden Week, Sending Oil Prices Higher Major Chinese refiners suspended gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel exports ahead of the National Day holiday starting October 1, with PetroChina canceling some October cargoes amid domestic inventories at multi-year lows. Brent crude broke above $100 a barrel on the news, and WTI jumped 2.75% to close at $92.91. Whether exports resume once the holiday ends on October 7 remains uncertain.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | +1.95% | China fuel export halt sent crude prices surging |
| Technology | +1.05% | Micron and Accenture earnings surprises |
| Industrials | +0.99% | Led by Boeing's +3.35% gain |
| Utilities | +0.61% | Defensive buying amid safe-haven demand |
| Financials | +0.11% | Mixed reaction to rising rates |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.03% | Flat trading |
| Consumer Staples | -0.33% | Flat trading |
| Materials | -0.33% | Flat trading |
| Real Estate | -0.56% | Continued pressure from high rates |
| Communication Services | -0.93% | Alphabet down 1.70% weighed on the sector |
| Healthcare | -1.32% | Amgen -3.38%, Thermo Fisher -3.34%, J&J -2.30% all declined |
🌍 Global Markets
- European STOXX 600: 626.65 (-1.30%, -8.24pt) — Fell in sympathy with the spike in U.S. Treasury yields
- Dollar Index (DXY): 102.04 (+0.58%) — Strengthened on continued safe-haven demand
- 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: 5.24% (-1.06%) — Touched a fresh two-decade-plus high of 5.30% intraday before retreating
- WTI Crude: $92.91 (+2.75%) — Jumped on supply concerns from China's fuel export halt
- Gold: $4,207.80 (+0.50%) — Continued safe-haven demand amid rate volatility
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX fell 1.85% today to close at $148.07. No unusual volume or negative news catalyst was identified; the decline appears to be a continuation of profit-taking following Starship's recent successful orbital flight. The average price target among 44 Wall Street analysts stands at $218.68, implying roughly 44% upside from current levels, though targets range from a high of $800 to a low of $75 — an unusually wide dispersion suggesting valuation consensus has yet to form. Today's drop appears consistent with broader weakness in healthcare and communication services, as well as a valuation reset in high-multiple growth names amid the yield spike.
⚠️ Investor Caution
The biggest risk remains the 10-year Treasury yield, which touched a fresh two-decade-plus high. J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli argues that "core PCE inflation has been above 3% every month this year and has made little recent progress heading toward 2%," seeing zero rate cuts through all of 2026 and leaving the door open to another hike. Citi's Scott Chronert, by contrast, expects the Fed to stay in "pause mode" until mid-2027 before eventually cutting — underscoring an unusually wide divergence in Wall Street's policy outlook. The ISM's prices-paid index surging to 77.9% also suggests inflationary pressure remains sticky. Nike's case — an EPS beat erased by a single guidance miss, triggering a 6%+ after-hours plunge — is a reminder that stock-specific volatility is likely to intensify as earnings season gets underway.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- September Nonfarm Payrolls (10/2, 9:30 PM KST): Payroll growth is expected to cool after August's 162,000 increase, with the unemployment rate and wage revisions likely to matter more than the headline number. A stronger-than-expected print could push the 10-year yield back above 5.30%.
- Whether the S&P 500 Holds 7,700: Having briefly turned negative intraday before rebounding to close near 7,666, a sustained break above 7,700 would be a key signal for the near-term trend.
- Whether Nike's After-Hours -6.3% Drop Carries Into Regular Trading: Also watch whether China demand concerns spread to competing apparel and footwear names like Lululemon and Under Armour.
- The 10-Year Yield's 5.20–5.30% Range: A retest of 5.30% could revive valuation pressure on mega-cap Nasdaq growth names.
- Whether Brent Holds Above $100: Energy sector volatility is likely to persist depending on whether China resumes fuel exports once its Golden Week holiday ends on October 7.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-10-02: September U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report
- 2026-10-07: FOMC minutes from the September 15–16 meeting
- 2026-10-13: Major bank Q3 earnings season kicks off, led by JPMorgan Chase
- 2026-10-13: September CPI report
📚 Sources
- Stock Market Today (Oct. 1, 2026): Stocks finish flat on rising Treasury yields — TheStreet
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq stage comeback as Treasury yields fall, chip stocks gain — Yahoo Finance
- U.S. unemployment claims dip to 197,000, lowest since mid-July — Washington Times
- Manufacturing PMI at 54.5%; September 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI Report — PR Newswire
- Micron tops Q4 estimates on top and bottom lines, offers strong Q1 outlook — Yahoo Finance
- Wells Fargo reiterates Overweight on Micron stock, $1,400 target — Investing.com
- Broadcom to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to lease its chips, filing says — CNBC
- Accenture (ACN) Shares Surge 21% Following Strong Q4 Earnings Beat — GuruFocus
- Nike falls as revenue miss overshadows earnings beat — Investing.com
- China Halts Fuel Exports Until Further Notice — OilPrice.com
- Fed could be in pause mode and make next move a cut, says Citi's Chronert — CNBC
- JPMorgan has a stark message on the next Fed rate cut — TheStreet
- Korean Investors Pour Into U.S. Assets Even as KOSPI Tops 7,000 — Seoul Economic Daily
- JPMorganChase to Host Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Call