Today's lesson is that stocks once lumped together under the single word "AI" are finally starting to diverge. Meta rose 4.5% after showing a concrete path to turning AI into money with Muse transaction fees, while Oracle fell 3.5% after invoking force majeure on a $165 billion data center. One side makes revenue from AI; the other spends heavily to build for it. With yields above 5%, the market is paying a premium for AI that already earns cash over AI built on borrowed money. Arm's 8% plunge showed how tightly that infrastructure chain is linked. The index was flat, but underneath it was noisy. For now, rather than buying the whole AI theme, investors need to distinguish companies proving themselves with cash flow from those relying on capital markets. Whether the 10-year breaks 5.2% will set the intensity of this stock-picking market.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
The won weakened to 1,366.32 per dollar, up 15.96 won from the prior day. After dipping into the 1,350s the day before, USD/KRW rebounded on record-high US yields and a firmer dollar. For Korean retail investors holding US assets without a currency hedge, that lifted the won value of dollar holdings by about 1.2%. With popular ETFs like QQQ (-0.01%), SPY (-0.08%) and 3x-leveraged TQQQ (-0.10%) flat, it was actually a gain in won terms. For Korea-linked names, Micron rose 0.81%, keeping memory-cycle hopes intact, but Arm's plunge and Oracle's data-center delay worries could weigh on sentiment across the AI server supply chain. Micron's earnings next week will be a gauge for SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics.
📊 Market Overview
On Thursday, September 24, the three major US indexes ended mixed and essentially flat. The S&P 500 slipped 1.90 points (-0.02%) to 7,704.13, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 3.33 points (+0.01%) to 26,939.37, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 161.61 points (-0.31%) to 51,349.98. Stocks opened lower as the previous day's PMI-driven selloff carried over, but pared most of their losses in the afternoon after Reuters reported that US and Iranian negotiators were working on a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Underlying tension did not ease, however. The 30-year Treasury yield set a fresh high of 5.43%, the highest since 2004, while the 10-year yield held in the 5.1% area, its highest since 2007. WTI crude jumped 2.82% to $94.76 a barrel and Brent topped $105. The indexes held their ground despite pressure from both bonds and oil because megacaps such as Meta (+4.50%), Intel (+3.91%), Eli Lilly (+2.68%) and AMD (+2.38%) offset sharp drops in Oracle (-3.47%) and Arm (-7.88%).
The VIX rose 3.23% to 15.67, and CNN's Fear & Greed Index stayed in "Fear" territory at around 35. The index was flat, but even among AI beneficiaries there were clear winners and losers.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Oracle issues force majeure notice on "Project Jupiter" — AI data-center investment risk in focus According to Bloomberg, Oracle sent a force majeure notice to the developer of the $165 billion Project Jupiter data center under construction in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The notice gives Oracle a legal shield to defer payment obligations if permit denials and financing problems derail the planned 2028 start-up. Oracle said the project "remains on our planned schedule," but the stock fell nearly 7% intraday before closing down 3.47% at $139.54, more than $100 below its June peak of $248. The market is watching whether this becomes the first crack in the AI capex cycle.
2. Arm -7.88%: a chain reaction across AI infrastructure Potential delays at Oracle's data center quickly spilled over to Arm. Concerns that Oracle's AI data-center expansion is tied directly to demand for Arm-based CPUs, combined with profit-taking after a recent rally and stretched valuations, sent Arm down 7.88% to $306.34. Qualcomm (-1.51%) and Broadcom (-1.30%) also weakened. Intel (+3.91%) and AMD (+2.38%), by contrast, rose on continued expectations of AI workload demand, showing stark divergence within semiconductors.
3. Meta +4.50%: a monetization blueprint for its "Muse" AI agent At Connect 2026, Meta unveiled new wearables including third-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses and Ray-Ban Meta Audio, and announced it will integrate its personal AI agent, Muse, into its smart glasses. CEO Mark Zuckerberg outlined plans to charge transaction fees on commerce conducted through Muse. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth raised his price target from $820 to $920, saying Muse has the potential to become the most promising consumer AI application since ChatGPT. Shares closed at $777.59, and Communication Services (+1.27%) led all 11 sectors.
4. Long-end yields at new highs — 30-year at 5.43%, Fed officials hint at more tightening Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said "some modest further tightening may be warranted" if inflation does not moderate, and New York Fed President John Williams called another hike by year-end "reasonable." Data all pointed to a hot economy: initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, below the 201,000 forecast, and August new home sales jumped to a 684,000 annualized pace, well above the 620,000 estimate. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.37%, the highest since May 2024.
5. Hormuz deal hopes vs. an oil spike; US-China truce extended Reuters reported that a phased deal is under discussion in which Iran would allow shipping transit and the US would lift its economic blockade. Still, perceptions that talks are stalled persisted, and oil prices surged. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US-China trade truce will be extended by two months, from November 10 to January 10, 2027, removing one source of uncertainty.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Communication Services (XLC) | +1.27% | Meta's Muse monetization, JPMorgan PT hike; Alphabet +1.34% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.63% | Eli Lilly +2.68%, Thermo Fisher +1.97% |
| Energy (XLE) | +0.37% | WTI up 2.8%, ConocoPhillips +0.98% |
| Financials (XLF) | -0.02% | AmEx +1.23% vs. Goldman Sachs -1.40% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.30% | Home Depot -1.53%, mortgage-rate spike |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.32% | Oracle, ServiceNow weak; Intel, AMD higher |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.45% | Long-end yields at new highs |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.75% | 3M -1.63%, Boeing -1.57% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.89% | Walmart -2.66%, P&G -1.16% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.98% | NextEra -1.82%, rate-sensitive selling |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.19% | Stronger dollar, higher rates |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: 636.43 (-0.55%). Rising global long-term yields and higher oil weighed on European equities.
- Dollar Index (DXY): 101.25 (+0.15%). The dollar firmed slightly on higher US yields.
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield: 5.16% (+0.05pp). Highest level since 2007; the 30-year hit 5.43%, the highest since 2004.
- WTI Crude: $94.76/bbl (+2.82%). Surged on concerns about stalled US-Iran talks and Middle East tensions; Brent broke above $105.
- Gold: $4,310.10/oz (-0.19%). Rising real yields outweighed safe-haven demand.
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Update
SPCX slipped 0.22% to $148.03. After falling more than 4% the prior day on a major shareholder's stake sale and lock-up expiry pressure, the stock steadied with a much smaller decline. No major new launch or contract news was identified for the day, and supply overhang since the listing remains the key near-term driver. Reclaiming the $150 level will be the reference point for short-term sentiment.
⚠️ Investor Caution
A flat close does not mean the market has stabilized. Yields of 5.1% on the 10-year and 5.4% on the 30-year keep eroding the relative appeal of equities, and BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder described the bond selloff as "not a crisis but an eye-opener," grading equities a "B-minus." With Fed officials repeatedly mentioning further tightening, the probability of an October hike has risen to the 70% range.
Oracle's force majeure notice also showed that AI data-center investment can run into real-world constraints such as permits and financing. AI infrastructure names (Arm, Oracle, power, data-center REITs) may overreact to individual project headlines, so staggered entries are preferable to chasing rallies. The renewed jump in oil prices has also increased uncertainty over the inflation path.
👁 What to Watch Tomorrow
- Can the S&P 500 hold 7,700? — It has held above 7,700 for two days, but another leg up in yields could push it toward 7,650 (last week's support zone). For the Nasdaq, 26,900 is near-term support.
- Durable goods orders and final University of Michigan sentiment — Due Friday morning. An upward revision to Michigan inflation expectations could strengthen October hike bets; a softer reading could slow the rise in yields.
- Costco's after-hours reaction — After the close, Costco beat on both lines with EPS of $6.75 (vs. $6.53 expected) and revenue of $95.72 billion (vs. $94.86 billion), and rose about 1% after hours. The question is how the market values results excluding a one-time $0.15-per-share benefit from tariff refunds.
- 10-year at 5.2% and oil at $100 — A break above 5.2% on the 10-year would make further corrections in rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, real estate) and richly valued tech hard to avoid. Progress in Hormuz talks will determine whether WTI breaks above $95.
- Oracle at $140, Arm at $300 — These are thermometers for AI infrastructure sentiment. If both fail to hold support, selling could spread across semiconductors and data-center names.
💡 Upcoming Events
- Sep 25 (Fri): August durable goods orders; final University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations
- Sep 30 (Wed): Q2 GDP (third estimate); Micron (MU) earnings
- Oct 2 (Fri): September jobs report (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate)
- October FOMC: Whether the Fed hikes again (market-implied odds in the 70% range)
📚 Sources
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq trim losses as Hormuz deal hopes offset rising bond yields — Yahoo Finance
- Market Review: September 24, 2026 — Investrade
- Oracle sends 'force majeure' notice about data center project — CNBC
- Oracle Cites 'Force Majeure' to Shield Itself on Controversial Data Center — Bloomberg
- ARM Stock Risks Returning Below $300 as Oracle Data-Center Uncertainty Weighs — FX Leaders
- Meta's Muse agent has the potential to dominate the AI space, says JPMorgan — CNBC
- Bond market sell-off 'not a crisis but an eye-opener' — Yahoo Finance
- US stocks waver as the bond market, oil prices keep up the pressure — The Washington Post
- Costco Q4 2026 earnings: Sales rise 11.2% to $93.9B — StockTitan
- Nasdaq Tumbles Over 1% As Treasury Yields Rise: Fear & Greed Index Remains In 'Fear' Zone — Benzinga