The pattern that repeated three days running this week — Tesla, Alphabet, now Intel — isn't a coincidence. Results beating consensus by a wide margin while the stock craters is the market signaling it's no longer pricing 'this quarter's numbers' but rather 'when will the AI investment actually pay off.' What I find most telling is that Intel's +15% after-hours pop completely reversed by the next day's regular close. That tells you the immediate post-earnings reaction is just a response to the headline surprise — not the market's real verdict once it has digested the capex details from the call. Trade off the headline alone and you can wake up to the opposite result the next day. That said, the Dow's rebound, alongside strength in telecom, card networks, and software names on their own solid results, suggests this is less a market-wide capitulation than capital rotating out of chips into everything else.
📊 Top Movers
🧭 Sector Performance
🇰🇷 Korean Investor Perspective
The won strengthened sharply to 1,459.42 per dollar, down 16.21 won from the prior day — its biggest single-day move in the past week. With the chip selloff extending to a third day and Micron falling nearly 7%, sentiment around Korea's memory supply chain (SK Hynix, Samsung) faces added pressure. Still, Morgan Stanley's decision to keep its $1,200 Overweight target on Micron intact, arguing AI-driven memory demand remains unimpaired, is a useful counterpoint. Holders of Nasdaq-heavy ETFs like QQQ and TQQQ saw modest declines today, and the stronger won slightly reduced the KRW-converted value of unhedged US equity holdings.
📊 Market Overview
US stocks closed mixed on Friday, July 24, as concern over the semiconductor sector's spending burden overshadowed Intel's earnings beat. The S&P 500 was essentially flat, up 3.68 points (+0.05%) to 7,411.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 235.60 points (+0.46%) to 51,947.25, its best single-day gain of the week. The Nasdaq Composite, however, fell 161.87 points (-0.64%) to 24,975.82, its third consecutive down day.
Intel was the day's central story. The company reported Q2 revenue of $16.1 billion — its strongest revenue growth in 17 years — and adjusted EPS of $0.42, double the $0.21 consensus. Yet shares fell -7.89% after Intel raised its 2026 capex guidance from $18 billion to over $20 billion and said 2027 capex would be "significantly higher" still. Following Alphabet and Tesla on July 23, Intel became the third straight day the market punished a stock for spending too much despite beating on earnings, and the selloff spread across the broader chip sector. Still, falling oil prices (WTI -4.67%) and standalone strength in telecom (AT&T, Verizon) and software (Adobe, Salesforce, ServiceNow) on their own earnings helped the Dow post a rebound.
🔑 Key Issues
1. Intel: Earnings Double Consensus, Stock Falls -7.89% on Capex Hike Intel posted Q2 revenue of $16.1 billion, double-digit YoY growth and its strongest revenue growth rate in 17 years. Adjusted EPS of $0.42 came in double the $0.21 consensus. Despite solid Data Center and AI segment growth, the company raised its 2026 capex outlook from $18 billion to over $20 billion and said 2027 capex would be "significantly higher" than 2026 levels. Shares that had jumped roughly 15% after-hours on the print gave back the entire gain the next trading day, closing down -7.89%. HSBC raised its price target from $100 to $200 and Seaport Global from $90 to $125, while Mizuho cut its target from $135 to $109, citing valuation concerns.
2. Chip Selloff Broadens as TSMC Also Raises Capex Micron (-6.99%), Arm (-8.14%), AMD (-3.29%), Qualcomm (-2.42%) and Broadcom (-2.69%) all fell sharply. TSMC raising its FY2026 capex guidance ceiling from $56 billion to $60-64 billion reignited industry-wide capex-burden concerns, compounded by growing worries about intensifying competition from Chinese memory makers, which added to selling pressure on Micron. Arm, facing valuation concerns (roughly 67x sales) ahead of its July 29 earnings, fell further after HSBC downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The chip sector has reportedly shed roughly $1.3 trillion in market cap this week alone.
3. Telecom and Card Networks Diverge — AT&T, Verizon Rally, Amex Falls AT&T posted adjusted EPS of $0.65 (beating the $0.59 consensus) on revenue of $31.6 billion (+2.3%), with net subscriber additions of 432,000, well above the 339,000 expected. The company raised its 2026 buyback plan from $8 billion to $10 billion, and shares rose +5.10%. Verizon's EPS of $1.30 matched consensus and revenue of $34.3 billion missed slightly, but postpaid net adds of 184,000 crushed the 104,000 expected, and the company raised its 2026 EPS growth guidance to 6-7%, sending shares up +5.84%. American Express, by contrast, beat on EPS ($4.53 vs. $4.40 consensus) but missed slightly on revenue ($19.64B vs. $19.69B expected), and rising expenses, a higher tax rate, and unchanged EPS guidance disappointed investors, sending shares down -4.30%.
4. Oil Plunges as New Tariffs Land — Risk Gets Redistributed WTI crude fell 4.67% to $87.88 a barrel, unwinding part of the spike driven by Iran-Houthi risk over the prior two days, as hopes rose for a US-Iran ceasefire. Overnight, however, the US Trade Representative announced new tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 countries, drawing sharp pushback from allies including the EU, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand. Asian markets closed lower in the aftermath.
5. Software Stocks Rally Together — "AI Eating Software" Narrative Eases Adobe (+6.10%), Salesforce (+4.29%), and ServiceNow (+7.44%) all rose in tandem. Salesforce disclosed a three-year, $1.6 billion agentic AI enterprise license agreement with the US Department of Veterans Affairs, confirming resilient federal AI demand, while Agentforce annual recurring revenue surged 205% YoY. The move suggests the recent "AI is cannibalizing SaaS revenue" narrative may be easing somewhat.
📊 Sector Performance
| Sector | Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | +2.00% | AT&T and Verizon earnings beats |
| Consumer Staples | +0.90% | Defensive buying |
| Utilities | +0.50% | Easing rate pressure |
| Health Care | +0.40% | Individual-stock rotation |
| Industrials | +0.30% | Range-bound |
| Materials | +0.20% | Flat despite lower oil |
| Consumer Discretionary | +0.10% | Apple strength offsetting Tesla weakness |
| Energy | +0.10% | Flat despite the oil price plunge |
| Financials | -0.30% | Amex earnings disappointment |
| Technology | -3.20% | Direct hit from Intel-led chip selloff |
🌍 Global Markets
- Europe STOXX 600: +0.3% (rebounding after Thursday's 1%+ drop as oil pressure eased)
- US Dollar Index (DXY): 101.46 (+0.01%) — flat
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.71% — roughly unchanged, with the 30-year approaching its highest level since 2007
- WTI Crude: $87.88/barrel (-4.67%)
- Gold: $4,044.06/oz (-0.14%)
🚀 SPCX (SpaceX) Movement
SpaceX (SPCX) fell -2.68% to close at $115.07, again testing its lowest level since its June 12 IPO. The decline reflects investor nerves ahead of the Starship Flight 13 test, scheduled for 6:45 PM ET that evening — a mission to verify ignition of the Super Heavy booster's upgraded Raptor 3 engines while carrying the first batch of 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. With two prior delays on record, uncertainty remains elevated, though some in the retail community are betting a successful launch could send the stock back toward $150.
⚠️ Investor Notes
Following Alphabet and Tesla on July 23, Intel became the third consecutive day the pattern repeated: a beat on earnings undercut by a capex hike that sends the stock down. BofA strategist Michael Hartnett's Bubble Risk Indicator has climbed to 0.91, a level of stock-concentration and overbought conditions not seen since June 2000. If the pattern repeats again when Microsoft and Meta report next Wednesday (7/29) and Apple and Amazon report Thursday (7/30), it could trigger a broader repricing of Big Tech valuations. That said, resilient results in telecom, card networks, and software, together with falling oil prices, are providing some support for the broader market — and Wedbush's Dan Ives still frames this selloff as merely "the 3rd inning of a 9-inning game," a buying opportunity rather than cause for panic.
👁 Tomorrow's Watch Points
- Whether the Nasdaq reclaims 25,000: After three straight down days, whether the index can retake the 25,000 level will be a key gauge of whether the chip selloff is stabilizing.
- Starship Flight 13 outcome: A successful launch Friday evening could be a positive signal not just for SPCX but for space-related names broadly. Given two prior delays, confirming the result matters.
- Rate-path repricing ahead of the FOMC (7/29): If the 10-year yield climbs further from 4.71%, it could add pressure to already-fragile chip and growth names.
- Microsoft, Meta, and Arm earnings (7/29): Watch whether the Alphabet/Tesla/Intel "capex shock" pattern repeats, or whether the market has digested it and can rebound.
- Whether the tariff dispute widens: Retaliatory moves from the EU, Mexico, and other trading partners could add volatility early next week.
💡 Upcoming Events
- 2026-07-29 (Wed): FOMC rate decision; Microsoft, Meta, and Arm earnings
- 2026-07-30 (Thu): Apple and Amazon earnings; Q2 GDP advance estimate
- 2026-07-31 (Fri): June PCE Price Index; final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 2026-08-01 (Sat): July Nonfarm Payrolls
📚 Sources
- Stock Market Today, July 24: Dow Recovers and Sandisk Tumbles 11% as Tech Stocks Fall Further — The Motley Fool
- Stock market today: Nasdaq slips, Dow and S&P 500 recover to close a volatile week on Wall Street — Yahoo Finance
- Why Did Intel Stock Drop Friday? — The Motley Fool
- Intel's 15% earnings pop evaporates, erasing billions in market cap overnight — Seeking Alpha
- SK Hynix and Micron Sink 6%, SanDisk Drops 9% as Korea Chip Selloff Hits U.S. Memory Stocks — 24/7 Wall St.
- What's Going on With Arm Stock Wednesday? — Benzinga
- Why American Express Stock Fell 6.5% Friday Morning — The Motley Fool
- Verizon stock rises as subscriber rebound comes with lower handset spending — TS2
- AT&T Stock Jumps As Q2 Beat Fuels Buyback Surge — Timothy Sykes
- Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) Trading 4.3% Higher – Here's What Happened — Markets Daily
- Here's the Full List of Trump's New Tariffs on 60 Economies — Bloomberg
- Oil Market Retreats — crude oil price data — TradingEconomics
- SpaceX stock stumbles ahead of major Starship test tonight — Yahoo Finance
- Morgan Stanley resets Micron stock price target on strong AI demand — TheStreet
- Nasdaq Tumbles Over 2% Amid Higher Oil Prices — Benzinga